Exploration of TNF-alpha Blockade With Golimumab in the Induction of Clinical Remission in Patients With Early Peripheral Spondyloarthritis (SpA) According to ASAS-criteria
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-03-18, after 2012-03-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectplacebosubjectscurrentlymphoma
Phrases that lowered it: arthritispatientsrheumatoidcarcinomaaccording -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 94 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 657 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 315 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- golimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Recombinant Anti-human IL-17A/F Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Active AS NCT07498634 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Golimumab in Combination With Methotrexate (MTX) Versus MTX Monotherapy, in Improving Dactylitis, in MTX naïve Psoriatic Arthritis Patients NCT02065713 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Golimumab in Early Axial Spondyloarthritis in Relation to Gut Inflammation NCT03270501 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of AbGn-168H in Patients With Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02267642 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- BI 655066 (Risankizumab) Proof of Concept Dose Finding Study in Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) NCT02047110 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.