BI 655066 (Risankizumab) Proof of Concept Dose Finding Study in Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningmonths priorprior tonew yorkto randomization
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whohcvsafety ofefficacyinvestigator
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ustekinumab for the Treatment of Patients With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis NCT01330901 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of IBI303 in Adult Patients With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis NCT02893254 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Recombinant Anti-human IL-17A/F Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Active AS NCT07498634 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Exploration of TNF-alpha Blockade With Golimumab in the Induction of Clinical Remission in Patients With Early Peripheral Spondyloarthritis (SpA) According to ASAS-criteria NCT01426815 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous Abatacept in Adults With Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01860976 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.