Efficacy and Safety of IBI303 in Adult Patients With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomatumorcelltherapypatients
  Phrases that lowered it: administrationperiodexaminationparticipantsand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 31.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 141529 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 83268 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Recombinant Anti-human IL-17A/F Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Active AS NCT07498634 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Preliminary Efficacy, Safety, and PK of Subcutaneous JS005 in Chinese Adult Patients With Active AS NCT05212051 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Study With KIN-1901 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Ankylosing Spondylitis NCT04205851 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• BI 655066 (Risankizumab) Proof of Concept Dose Finding Study in Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) NCT02047110 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Ustekinumab for the Treatment of Patients With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis NCT01330901 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.