A Phase 3, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind,Active-controlled, Parallel-group Trial With an Open-labelExtension Phase to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of OralE5501 Versus Eltrombopag, in Adults With Chronic ImmuneThrombocytopenia (Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartmdsulnmarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsafety ofinfectedto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 726 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Oral E5501 Plus Standard of Care for the Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Adults With Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia (Amendment 02) NCT01438840 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study on HMPL-523 for Treatment of ITP NCT05029635 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Lusutrombopag in the Treatment of Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) NCT06287567 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study of a New Medication for Childhood Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP), a Blood Disorder of Low Platelet Counts That Can Lead to Bruising Easily, Bleeding Gums, and/or Bleeding Inside the Body. NCT01520909 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Thrombocytopenia From Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00908037 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.