Study of a New Medication for Childhood Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP), a Blood Disorder of Low Platelet Counts That Can Lead to Bruising Easily, Bleeding Gums, and/or Bleeding Inside the Body.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatients muststudy treatmentpriorpatients with
  Phrases that lowered it: tolerabilitysafetyto investigateinvestigate theplacebo
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1564 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 400 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 726 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Thrombocytopenia From Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00908037 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag vs Standard Front Line Management for Newly Diagnosed Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) in Children NCT03939637 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Clinical Evaluation of Eltrombopag in Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00828750 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Chronic Immune (Idiopathic) Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT02201290 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind,Active-controlled, Parallel-group Trial With an Open-labelExtension Phase to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of OralE5501 Versus Eltrombopag, in Adults With Chronic ImmuneThrombocytopenia (Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura) NCT01433978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.