Efficacy Study of Recombinant Adenovirus for Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 34% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancercellmultiple sclerosispatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinepatientbladderformulationrenal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of CG0070 Oncolytic Virus Regimen for High Grade NMIBC After BCG Failure NCT02365818 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Combined With PANVAC Versus BCG Alone in Adults With High Grade Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Who Failed At Least 1 Course of BCG NCT02015104 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy NCT03294304 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study of CG0070 Combined With Nivolumab in Cisplatin Ineligible Patients With MIBC NCT04610671 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent BCG-Unresponsive Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02844816 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.