Dalfampridine for Imbalance in Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-09-30, after 2011-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: msbreastsclerosisdoublesubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: healthymultiplesmall20creatinine -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 59 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 59 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 82 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 43 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1267 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1014 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dalfampridine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Fampridine-ER Tablets in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01328379 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Effects of Physical Therapy and Dalfampridine on Functional Mobility in Non Ambulatory Persons With Multiple Sclerosis NCT05859802 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Effects of Dalfampridine on Cognition in Multiple Sclerosis NCT02006160 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Effect of MD1003 in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (SPI2) NCT02936037 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of Sustained Release Dalfampridine in Transverse Myelitis (Re-Launch) NCT02166346 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.