To Assess the Effect of Administration of 2 Formulation of AZD3241 on Blood Concentration in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilitymultipleplacebo controlleddouble blindms
  Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthythe pharmacokineticsformulationskg
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 272 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1039 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Different Extended Release (ER)-Formulations and Multiple Ascending Dosing of AZD3241 NCT00914303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 Multiple Doses in Healthy Volunteers NCT00977626 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Safety, Tolerability and Blood Concentrations of Single Doses of AZD3839 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01348737 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics of Extended-Release Test- and Reference Formulations of AZD0837 NCT00878618 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Oral Doses of AZD5213 in Healthy Male and Non Fertile Female Subjects NCT01171105 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.