AMG 151 Amgen Protocol Number 20100761

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: treatedrandomizationboweltypecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: use ofkginclusiveweightbmi
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11223 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 221 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Investigate Effect of AMG 151 on 24-hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure & Glucose Levels in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Subjects NCT01755442 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• Single Ascending Dose Trial in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01492465 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01856881 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Alogliptin Plus Metformin in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01023581 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Alogliptin Plus Metformin Compared to Glipizide Plus Metformin in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT00856284 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.