Efficacy and Safety Study of Azimilide on the Incidence of Cardiovascular Hospitalizations/Emergency Department Visits or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With an Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) (SHIELD-2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartfibrillationclassatrial
  Phrases that lowered it: cardiovascularinvestigatorand safetyefficacy andonce daily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating Ventricular Arrhythmia in Subjects With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator or Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy-Defibrillator NCT02104583 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• The Clinical Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Istaroxime in Treatment of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT02617446 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of Celivarone With Amiodarone as Calibrator for the Prevention of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) Interventions or Death NCT00993382 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Ranolazine Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Trial NCT01215253 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of HSY244 in Participants With Atrial Fibrillation NCT04582409 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.