Evaluating Ventricular Arrhythmia in Subjects With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator or Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy-Defibrillator

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularplacebosyndromeheartcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: effectdrugsdaysindividualstaking
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Ranging Study of Celivarone With Amiodarone as Calibrator for the Prevention of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) Interventions or Death NCT00993382 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Ranolazine Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Trial NCT01215253 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Azimilide on the Incidence of Cardiovascular Hospitalizations/Emergency Department Visits or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With an Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) (SHIELD-2) NCT01464476 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Ertugliflozin to Reduce Arrhythmic Burden in ICD/CRT patientS (ERASe-Trial) - a Phase III Study NCT04600921 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Randomized Trial With Flecainide in ARVC Patients NCT03685149 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.