A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability of Different Formulations of GSK2018682, a Sphingosine-1-phosphate Receptor Subtype 1 Agonist, in Healthy Volunteers.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-02-15, after 2010-12-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multipleeffectivefemalesdayspharmacodynamics
Phrases that lowered it: healthybioavailabilityvolunteerssubjectopen label -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 453 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1303 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1303 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 453 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- GSK706769 Repeat Dose Study NCT00711386 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Randomized, Single Blind, Placebo Controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single Oral Doses and Repeat Escalating Oral Doses of GSK2251052 in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT01262885 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- GSK2190915 Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT00955383 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Tolerability Study of GSK2982772, in Single (in Both Fed and Fasted States) and Repeat Oral Doses in Healthy Male Subjects NCT02302404 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of GSK1995057 Given as Single and Repeat Intravenous Doses in Healthy Subjects. NCT01476046 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.