Induction and Maintenance Study of BMS-936557 in Patients With Moderate to Severely Active Crohn's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-12-31, after 2011-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebobmsmoderate todouble blinddetermine
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andpatients whosafety ofto evaluate -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 314 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.9%
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 101 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose Ranging Study of BMS-945429 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01545050 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- An Investigational Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986165 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT03599622 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Brodalumab (AMG 827) in Adults With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01150890 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- Induction and Maintenance Study of BMS-936557 Patients With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01294410 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Andecaliximab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02405442 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.