An Investigational Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986165 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsplacebosubjects within subjectsother protocol
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateparticipantto severeparticipantsinadequate response
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 626 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Induction and Maintenance Study of BMS-936557 in Patients With Moderate to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT01466374 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of BMS-945429 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01545050 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Andecaliximab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02405442 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Brodalumab (AMG 827) in Adults With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01150890 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of JNJ-64304500 in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02877134 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.