Oral Baricitinib (LY3009104)Treatment in Japanese Participants With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis on Background Methotrexate Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-12-31, after 2011-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: extensionmgpriorweeksstable
Phrases that lowered it: hcvhepatitis virusrarheumatoid arthritisantigen -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 608 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 208 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 62100 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 608 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 208 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 62100 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13095 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- baricitinib, methotrexate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT02265705 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- INCB028050 Compared to Background Therapy in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) With Inadequate Response to Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs NCT00902486 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study to Compare Upadacitinib to Abatacept in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease- Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs NCT03086343 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are on a Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) and Have an Inadequate Response to csDMARDs NCT02720523 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Study in Participants With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01711359 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.