Weight Loss Study for Patients With Obesity Due to Craniopharyngioma or Other Brain Tumor

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 24% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantkidneygreater thancarcinomapatients with
  Phrases that lowered it: weightweeksbodybmiallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 21.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 40 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Exenatide on Hypothalamic Obesity NCT01061775 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide in the Treatment of Hypothalamic Obesity After Craniopharyngioma Therapy NCT02860923 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Energy Balance & Weight Loss in Craniopharyngioma-related or Other Hypothalamic Tumors in Hypothalamic Obesity NCT02664441 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Exenatide (Byetta ) on Energy Expenditure and Weight Loss in Nondiabetic Obese Subjects NCT00856609 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Enhancing Weight Loss Maintenance With GLP-1RA (BYDUREON™) in Adolescents With Severe Obesity NCT02496611 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.