Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide in the Treatment of Hypothalamic Obesity After Craniopharyngioma Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-30, after 2017-01-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebothe purposepurpose ofpatientstudy is
Phrases that lowered it: and safetycompareefficacy andsafety oftype diabetes -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 163 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 48 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 54728 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3437 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 26.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- exenatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Energy Balance & Weight Loss in Craniopharyngioma-related or Other Hypothalamic Tumors in Hypothalamic Obesity NCT02664441 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Weight Loss Study for Patients With Obesity Due to Craniopharyngioma or Other Brain Tumor NCT01484873 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Effects of Exenatide on Hypothalamic Obesity NCT01061775 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- The Effects of Exenatide (Byetta ) on Energy Expenditure and Weight Loss in Nondiabetic Obese Subjects NCT00856609 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Liraglutide Versus Placebo in Weight Loss Maintenance in Obese Subjects: SCALE - Maintenance NCT00781937 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.