A Study to Investigate the Safety and Clinical Effect of Nexagon® as a Topical Treatment for Subjects With a Diabetic Foot Ulcer (DUNE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diabeticsubjectssubjecttypediabetes
  Phrases that lowered it: infectedeffect ofclinicalsurfacetopical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The ASCEND Study: A Study to Investigate the Safety and Clinical Effect of Nexagon to Treat Slow Healing Diabetic Foot Ulcers NCT00820703 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ON101 Cream for the Treatment of Chronic Diabetic Foot Ulcers NCT04962139 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• CHF6467 SAD and MAD in Patients With Diabetic Foot Ulcer NCT04077671 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of Granexin Gel in the Treatment of Diabetic Foot Ulcer NCT02667327 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Multi-Center, Prospective, Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating SkinTE® in the Treatment of Wagner 2 DFUs NCT05372809 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.