Trial of Vemurafenib/Cobimetinib With or Without Bevacizumab in Patients With Stage IV BRAFV600 Mutant Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stablestagepatients mustmelanomaprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstrialclinicalagreewhile taking
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10893 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vemurafenib and Cobimetinib Combination in BRAF Mutated Melanoma With Brain Metastasis NCT02537600 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Encorafenib and Binimetinib Before Local Treatment in Patients With BRAF Mutant Melanoma Metastatic to the Brain NCT03898908 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Vemurafenib in Combination With Cobimetinib (Continuous and Intermittent) in BRAFV600-mutation Positive Patients With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma NCT02583516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Vemurafenib + Cobimetinib on Immunity in Patients With Melanoma NCT01813214 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Study of Cobimetinib in Combination With Vemurafenib in Active Melanoma Brain Metastases NCT02230306 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.