Phase II Study of Cobimetinib in Combination With Vemurafenib in Active Melanoma Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: womenmelanomacholesteroltherapyfunction
  Phrases that lowered it: to containvaccinedays20previous
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3969 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib After Radiosurgery in Patients With BRAF-mutant Melanoma Brain Metastases NCT03430947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Vemurafenib in Combination With Cobimetinib (Continuous and Intermittent) in BRAFV600-mutation Positive Patients With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma NCT02583516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib and Cobimetinib Combination in BRAF Mutated Melanoma With Brain Metastasis NCT02537600 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Trial of Vemurafenib/Cobimetinib With or Without Bevacizumab in Patients With Stage IV BRAFV600 Mutant Melanoma NCT01495988 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Encorafenib and Binimetinib Before Local Treatment in Patients With BRAF Mutant Melanoma Metastatic to the Brain NCT03898908 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.