S1201: Combination Chemo for Patients W/Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal, Gastric, or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerpriormetastaticpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: gastricpatients wholiveresophagealtrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7964 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 11 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Epirubicin, Oxaliplatin and Fluorouracil (EOF) in Cancer of the Esophagus, Gastroesophageal Junction, or Stomach NCT00601705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel, Oxaliplatin, Capecitabine, Fluorouracil, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Cancer of the Esophagus or Gastroesophageal Junction NCT00938470 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Molecular Phenotyping in Predicting Response in Patients With Stage IB-III Esophageal Cancer Receiving Combination Chemotherapy NCT02392377 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Cetuximab Followed by Surgery, Docetaxel, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Esophageal Cancer or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT00551759 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Stomach, Gastroesophageal, or Esophageal Cancer NCT01928290 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.