Molecular Phenotyping in Predicting Response in Patients With Stage IB-III Esophageal Cancer Receiving Combination Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagetumortherapyreceivingcells
  Phrases that lowered it: determined byas determinedpatients whopatients withallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 93572 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15167 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• S1201: Combination Chemo for Patients W/Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal, Gastric, or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT01498289 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Epirubicin, Oxaliplatin and Fluorouracil (EOF) in Cancer of the Esophagus, Gastroesophageal Junction, or Stomach NCT00601705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• CHFR Methylation Status Esophageal Cancer Study NCT01372202 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• PET Scan Imaging in Assessing Response in Patients With Esophageal Cancer Receiving Combination Chemotherapy NCT01333033 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT00655876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.