Respiratory Syncytial Virus - RSV Protocol

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ribavirinpatientseligiblepatientcell
  Phrases that lowered it: respiratorynasalmalebodytract infection
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 323 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7167 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Presatovir in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection of the Lower Respiratory Tract NCT02254421 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Presatovir in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection of the Upper Respiratory Tract NCT02254408 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Anti-viral Effect of PC786 on RSV Infection on HSCT Recipients NCT03715023 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
• Effects of EDP-938 in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus of the Upper Respiratory Tract NCT04633187 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• RI-001 in Immunosuppressed Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infected Patients at Risk of Lower Tract RSV Illness NCT00632463 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.