Anti-viral Effect of PC786 on RSV Infection on HSCT Recipients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantcellstemallogeneichematopoietic
  Phrases that lowered it: infectedrespiratoryribavirininhalednasal
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of PC786 to Evaluate the Antiviral Activity, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Doses in an RSV Challenge Study NCT03382431 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Presatovir in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection of the Lower Respiratory Tract NCT02254421 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Respiratory Syncytial Virus - RSV Protocol NCT01502072 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Presatovir in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection of the Upper Respiratory Tract NCT02254408 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Effects of JNJ-53718678 in Adult and Adolescent Participants Who Had a Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation and Who Are Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) NCT04056611 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.