Efficacy of FOLFOX Alone, FOLFOX Plus Bevacizumab and FOLFOX Plus Panitumumab in Patients With Resectable Liver Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the patientweeksheartpatients mustfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: hepaticlivertypedrugsopen
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10018 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Cetuximab as First-line Treatment of Patients With Non-resectable Liver - Only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02063529 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Curative Resectability of Not Optimally Resectable Liver and/or Lung Metastases From Colorectal Carcinoma (CRC) Under Intensified Chemotherapy NCT01126866 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Colorectal Cancer Treated With Adjuvant Regorafenib Versus Placebo After Curative Treatment of Liver Metastases in a Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase-III STudy NCT01939223 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Improving SUrgery of Liver Metastases: a Trial of the Arterial Chemotherapy Network NCT03164655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Study of Perioperative Chemotherapy Plus Panitumumab in Patients With Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases NCT01260415 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.