Improving SUrgery of Liver Metastases: a Trial of the Arterial Chemotherapy Network
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-15, after 2018-07-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancerpatienttumormetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: accordinglesionsadministrationhypertensionhepatic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 208816 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 57 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 23 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 208816 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 29564 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, cetuximab, fluorouracil, irinotecan, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, panitumumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Curative Resectability of Not Optimally Resectable Liver and/or Lung Metastases From Colorectal Carcinoma (CRC) Under Intensified Chemotherapy NCT01126866 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Postoperative Hepatic Arterial Chemotherapy in High-risk Patients as Adjuvant Treatment After Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases NCT02494973 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of FOLFOX Alone, FOLFOX Plus Bevacizumab and FOLFOX Plus Panitumumab in Patients With Resectable Liver Metastases NCT01508000 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
- Chemotherapies Associated With Targeted Therapies on the Resection Rate of Hepatic Metastases NCT01442935 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- FOLFOXIRI With or Without Cetuximab as First-line Treatment of Patients With Non-resectable Liver - Only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02063529 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.