Chemotherapies Associated With Targeted Therapies on the Resection Rate of Hepatic Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorcancerpatientmetastasesmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: accordinghealthyevaluateweeks beforecontraceptive
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9521 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Cetuximab as First-line Treatment of Patients With Non-resectable Liver - Only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02063529 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Bevacizumab as First-line Treatment for Unresectable Liver-only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With RAS Mutation-type NCT02350530 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Improving SUrgery of Liver Metastases: a Trial of the Arterial Chemotherapy Network NCT03164655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Hepatic Arterial Chemotherapy With Raltitrexed and Oxaliplatin Versus Standard Chemotherapy in Unresectable Liver Metastases From Colorectal Cancer After Conventional Chemotherapy Failure NCT01348412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Postoperative Hepatic Arterial Chemotherapy in High-risk Patients as Adjuvant Treatment After Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases NCT02494973 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.