Hepatic Arterial Chemotherapy With Raltitrexed and Oxaliplatin Versus Standard Chemotherapy in Unresectable Liver Metastases From Colorectal Cancer After Conventional Chemotherapy Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mribevacizumabassociationscanfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacytrialhepaticto evaluatereference
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapies Associated With Targeted Therapies on the Resection Rate of Hepatic Metastases NCT01442935 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of Systemic Chemotherapy With CPT-11 Plus HAI (FUDR+L-OHP) in Patients With Initially Unresectable CRCLM NCT03493061 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Intra-arterial Hepatic Beads Loaded With Irinotecan With Concomitant Chemotherapy With FOLFOX in Patients With Colorectal Cancer With Unresectable Liver Metastases: a Phase II Multicenter Study NCT01839877 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant Systemic Chemotherapy With or Without HAI-FUDR in Patients With Resected CRLM NCT03500874 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• Intra-arterial Hepatic Bevacizumab and Systemic Chemotherapy NCT01677884 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.