Intra-arterial Hepatic Beads Loaded With Irinotecan With Concomitant Chemotherapy With FOLFOX in Patients With Colorectal Cancer With Unresectable Liver Metastases: a Phase II Multicenter Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapytumormetastasesprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyliverarterialhepaticdiseases
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Hepatic Arterial Chemotherapy With Raltitrexed and Oxaliplatin Versus Standard Chemotherapy in Unresectable Liver Metastases From Colorectal Cancer After Conventional Chemotherapy Failure NCT01348412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Drug-Eluting Bead, Irinotecan (DEBIRI) Therapy of Liver Metastasis From Colon Cancer With Systemic Fluorouracil, Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin and Bevacizumab NCT00932438 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Chemoembolization, Irinotecan Bead, Second Line Chemotherapy Treatment of Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00816777 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Systemic Chemotherapy With CPT-11 Plus HAI (FUDR+L-OHP) in Patients With Initially Unresectable CRCLM NCT03493061 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Treating Liver Cancer With Drug-Eluting Beads NCT01336985 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.