Comparison of the Effect of an Ongoing Treatment With Alendronate or a Drug Holiday on the Fracture Risk in Osteoporotic Patients With Bisphosphonate Long Term Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: minlong termthe purposepurpose oftreatment of
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesevaluateand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial Evaluating the Effects of Zoledronic Acid 5 mg Infusion on Bone Mineral Density (BMD) in Postmenopausal Osteoporosis (PMO) Patients Between the Ages of 50 and 65 Years NCT00909961 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• MK-5442 in the Treatment of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women Previously Treated With an Oral Bisphosphonate (MK-5442-012) NCT00996801 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• The Use of Steovess/Binosto After Denosumab Discontinuation to Prevent Increase in Bone Turnover NCT04403698 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• An Open-label Study to Evaluate the Effect of Treatment With Romosozumab or Teriparatide in Postmenopausal Women NCT01796301 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Bisphosphonates for Prevention of Post-Denosumab Bone Loss NCT03396315 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.