Clinical Trial of Simvastatin to Treat Generalized Vitiligo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsphase iievidence ofwith studyto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: maletopicalsafetyuse oftrial to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 64 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Evaluation of Vitiligous Lesions Repigmentation After the Administration of Atorvastatin Calcium Salt and Simvastatin-acid Sodium Salt in Patients With Active Vitiligo NCT03247400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Atorvastatin in Active Vitiligo NCT02432534 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AS012 in Subjects With Non-segmental Vitiligo NCT04487860 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity With Oral Tablets of Upadacitinib in Adult Participants With Non-Segmental Vitiligo NCT04927975 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Assess the Efficacy and Safety of SHR0302 Ointment in Adult Patients With Vitiligo NCT04774809 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.