Atorvastatin in Active Vitiligo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: monthsdefinedrandomizationpatientsscore
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicaloldatorvastatinto evaluateparticipants
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Evaluation of Vitiligous Lesions Repigmentation After the Administration of Atorvastatin Calcium Salt and Simvastatin-acid Sodium Salt in Patients With Active Vitiligo NCT03247400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Simvastatin to Treat Generalized Vitiligo NCT01517893 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Repigmentation Using Apremilast and Phototherapy In Diffuse VITILIGO NCT03036995 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity With Oral Tablets of Upadacitinib in Adult Participants With Non-Segmental Vitiligo NCT04927975 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Maintenance Treatment of Non Segmental Vitiligo With Tacrolimus Ointment 0.1% Versus Control NCT01841008 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.