Afatinib and Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced HER2-Positive Trastuzumab-Refractory Advanced Esophagogastric Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-02-20, after 2012-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: trastuzumabher2cancerpetwomen
Phrases that lowered it: patients whothe trialmmdiarrheaplasma -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 323 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 323 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 86 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8552 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2225 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation NCT02597946 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Phase II of AUY922 in Second-line Gastric Cancer in Combination With Trastuzumab in HER2 Positive Patients NCT01402401 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
- Afatinib, Paclitaxel, 2nd Line, Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT02501603 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (HER)2 Immunohistochemistry (IHC)-Positive, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02289833 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant TDM1 With Lapatinib and Abraxane Compared With Trastuzumab Plus Pertuzumab With Paclitaxel NCT02073487 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.