Phase II, Open Label, Single Arm Study of SAR302503 In Myelofibrosis Patients Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellulnchemotherapyhigh risk
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatethe efficacyopen labelsubjectsonce daily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 322 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study in Japanese Patients With Intermediate-2 or High Risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis With Splenomegaly NCT01692366 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of SAR302503 in Intermediate-2 and High Risk Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT01437787 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study of SAR302503 in Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT01420770 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation, Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of SAR103168 in Patients Refractory/ Relapsed Acute Leukemias or High-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT00981240 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Selinexor in Myelofibrosis Refractory or Intolerant to JAK1/2 Inhibitors NCT03627403 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.