Phase 2 Study in Japanese Patients With Intermediate-2 or High Risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis With Splenomegaly

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationhearttherapymriprior
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatesafety ofpharmacokineticsthe efficacy
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 350 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study of SAR302503 in Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT01420770 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of SAR302503 in Intermediate-2 and High Risk Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT01437787 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Phase II, Open Label, Single Arm Study of SAR302503 In Myelofibrosis Patients Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT01523171 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PM), Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) Myelofibrosis NCT02087059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Simtuzumab in Adults With Primary, Post Polycythemia Vera or Post Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01369498 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.