Alpha 1 Anti-Trypsin (AAT) in Treating Patients With Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease GVHD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: uncontrolledcellsiiheart failurecell
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andthe efficacypatients whoseverecriteria patients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of GVHD in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) Recipients Using AAT Plus Corticosteroids (CS) Compared With Corticosteroids Alone NCT04167514 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin (AAT) for the Prevention of Graft-versus-host Disease (GVHD) in Patients Receiving Hematopoietic Cell Transplant NCT03805789 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study of Alpha-1-Antitrypsin (AAT) in Steroid Refractory Acute Graft vs Host Disease NCT01700036 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Proof of Concept Pilot Trial of Alpha-1-Antitrypsin for Pre-Emption Of Steroid-Refractory Acute GVHD NCT03459040 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Safety of Itacitinib in Combination With Corticosteroids for Treatment of Steroid-Naive Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease in Japanese Subjects NCT03497273 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.