The Safety and Efficacy of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin (AAT) for the Prevention of Graft-versus-host Disease (GVHD) in Patients Receiving Hematopoietic Cell Transplant
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (75 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-03-19, after 2019-03-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: donorcelltransplantallogeneicgvhd
Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theefficacysafetyto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 65 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Alpha 1 Anti-Trypsin (AAT) in Treating Patients With Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease GVHD) NCT01523821 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Treatment of GVHD in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) Recipients Using AAT Plus Corticosteroids (CS) Compared With Corticosteroids Alone NCT04167514 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- A Study of Itolizumab in Combination With Corticosteroids for the First-Line Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (EQUATOR) NCT05263999 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Cyclophosphamide, Abatacept, and Tacrolimus for GvHD Prevention NCT04503616 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of ATIR101 as Adjunctive Treatment to Blood Stem Cell Transplantation From a Haploidentical Family Donor Compared to Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide in Patients With Blood Cancer NCT02999854 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.