First-Line Gemcitabine, Cisplatin + Ipilimumab for Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 33% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-31, after 2012-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapypriorcarcinomabraincancer
Phrases that lowered it: with historyarthritisrheumatoiddailydiseases -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4494 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 12 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 66.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 21575 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4494 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, gemcitabine, ipilimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neo-Adjuvant Bladder Urothelial Carcinoma COmbination-immunotherapy NCT03387761 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Study of NIVOLUMAB/IPILIMUMAB Maintenance in Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT05219435 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy NCT03294304 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Atezolizumab in Localized Bladder Cancer NCT02451423 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Chemoradiation Therapy and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Stages IB2-IIB or IIIB-IVA Cervical Cancer NCT01711515 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.