IL1-TRAP, Rilonacept, in Systemic Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (1,813 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsdlweeks oftreatment withwomen of
  Phrases that lowered it: malescreeningfemalegastrointestinalefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effectiveness and Safety of SAR156597 in Treating Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis NCT02921971 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Proof of Mechanism Study of GSK2330811 in Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT03041025 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Tofacitinib in Early Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis (dcSSc) NCT03274076 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of MT-7117 in Subjects With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT04440592 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of HZN-825 in Patients With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT04781543 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.