Study To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of PH-797804 For 12 Weeks In Adults With Moderate To Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) On A Background Of Tiotropium Bromide

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 319 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsrandomizationchronicheartms
  Phrases that lowered it: copdmoderateevaluatefev1to severe
• Sponsor's past trials: 1093 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 6-week Dose Ranging Study of CHF 5259 pMDI in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT03084796 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Two Fixed-dose Combinations of Aclidinium Bromide With Formoterol Fumarate Compared With Aclidinium Bromide, Formoterol Fumarate and Placebo NCT01049360 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of EP-101 ( (SUN101) in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01706536 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Clinical Trial on the Efficacy and Safety of TQC3721 Inhalation Powder NCT07252908 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Aclidinium Bromide/Formoterol Fumarate Compared With Aclidinium Bromide and Formoterol Fumarate in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01437397 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.