Medication Development in Alcoholism: Investigating Glucocorticoid Antagonists
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-07-31, after 2012-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ivsubjects mustacutescorerelapse
Phrases that lowered it: alcoholvolunteersnicotinevaccineinvestigating -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- not given (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 247 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 47.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mifepristone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mifepristone Treatment of Alcohol Use Disorder NCT02179749 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Medication Development for Protracted Abstinence in Alcoholism: CORT118335 Versus Placebo NCT04466215 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- INIA Stress and Chronic Alcohol Interactions: Glucocorticoid Antagonists in Heavy Drinkers NCT02989662 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Mifepristone for the Prevention of Relapses of Alcohol Drinking NCT02243709 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Medication Development in Alcoholism: Investigating PPAR Agonists NCT02158273 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.