INIA Stress and Chronic Alcohol Interactions: Glucocorticoid Antagonists in Heavy Drinkers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (69 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-01-31, after 2017-09-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebobrainmatchedcontroleffects
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersalcoholhealthdrinking -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 485 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 133 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2665 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 420 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 46.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mifepristone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Medication Development in Alcoholism: Investigating Glucocorticoid Antagonists NCT01548417 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Mifepristone Treatment of Alcohol Use Disorder NCT02179749 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Acute Effects of Cortisol on Alcohol Craving in Alcohol Dependence NCT02196142 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Neuroendocrine Response to Oral Alcohol Administration NCT03165942 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Alcohol and Cigarette Craving During Oxytocin Treatment NCT04071119 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.