Safety Study of Mesenchymal Stem Cells and Spinal Fusion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (1,813 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-10-21, after 2012-07-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bonecellsmarrowpatientstem
Phrases that lowered it: productmaleclinical trialsmokercigarettes -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Keywords listed: 6 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Comparison of Posterior Cellular Bonegraft Options for Single Level Lumbar Spinal Fusion NCT07187362 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Utilization of Autologous Mesenchymal Cells in Posterolateral Spinal Fusion in Degenerative Spine Disease NCT03827096 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- Treatment of Degenerative Disc Disease With Allogenic Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSV) NCT01860417 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Safety and Preliminary Efficacy Study of NeoFuse in Subjects Requiring Lumbar Interbody Fusion NCT00996073 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Phase 2a Study on Allogeneic Osteoblastic Cells Implantation in Lumbar Spinal Fusion NCT02205138 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.