Treatment of Degenerative Disc Disease With Allogenic Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSV)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-15, after 2013-06-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsbonemarrowmriimaging
Phrases that lowered it: healthymassdiseaseskgsingle -
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 309 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 52 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mepivacaine, mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Preliminary Efficacy Study of Mesenchymal Precursor Cells (MPCs) in Subjects With Lumbar Back Pain NCT01290367 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Intradiscal Injection of Autologous BM-MSC in Worker Patients Affected by Chronic LBP Due to Multilevel IDD NCT04759105 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of Mesenchymal Stem Cells and Spinal Fusion NCT01552707 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of CordSTEM-DD in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT04530071 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- A Study Comparing the Safety and Effectiveness of Cartilage Cell Injected Into the Lumbar Disc as Compared to a Placebo NCT01771471 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.