AMG 386 and Abiraterone for Advanced Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-07-01, after 2012-02-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerrandomizationdiseasepatients
Phrases that lowered it: participantsdaycombinationdrugs28 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 295 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 570 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10042 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 570 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 295 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 44768 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10042 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abiraterone, prednisone, trebananib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combination Study of AZD5069 and Enzalutamide. NCT03177187 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
- ARN 509 Plus Everolimus in Men With Progressive Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer After Treatment With Abiraterone Acetate NCT02106507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Enzalutamide Plus Talazoparib for the Treatment of Hormone Sensitive Prostate Cancer (ZZ-First) NCT04332744 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Avelumab Plus 2nd-generation ADT in African American Subjects With mCRPC NCT03770455 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Study of Abiraterone Acetate Without Exogenous Glucocorticoids in Men With Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02025010 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.