Avelumab Plus 2nd-generation ADT in African American Subjects With mCRPC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-01-07, after 2019-01-25 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: prostatepsactmriprogression
Phrases that lowered it: trialscreeninghcvsubjectconducted in -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13047 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 56633 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 56633 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13047 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abiraterone, avelumab, enzalutamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Trial of BXCL701 and Pembrolizumab in Patients With mCRPC Either Small Cell Neuroendocrine Prostate Cancer or Adenocarcinoma Phenotype. NCT03910660 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Enzalutamide Plus Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) Versus Placebo Plus Enzalutamide Plus ADT in Participants With Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (mHSPC) (MK-3475-991/KEYNOTE-991) NCT04191096 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Cabazitaxel Versus the Switch to Alternative AR Targeted Therapy Enzalutamide or Abiraterone in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) Primary Resistant Patients to Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT02379390 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC)(MK-3475-199/KEYNOTE-199) NCT02787005 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Enzalutamide Plus Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) Versus Placebo Plus Enzalutamide Plus ADT in Participants With Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (mHSPC) (MK-3475-991/KEYNOTE-991)-China Extension NCT04934722 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.