Using Genetic Polymorphisms to Predict the Efficacy and Toxicity - A Gastric Adenocarcinoma Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-12-31, after 2012-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycanceradenocarcinomacarcinomasquamous cell
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacypatients whoefficacy andmonths before109 -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 29791 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5925 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, capecitabine oxaliplatin, docetaxel, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficiency of XELOX Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Gastric Cancer NCT01665274 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- XELOX Versus FOLFOX for Advanced Gastric Cancer (AGC) NCT01748851 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
- Low-Tox Vs Eox In Patients With Locally Advanced Unresectable Or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT02076594 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- Genotype-drive Study of Irinotecan-Cisplatin Combination for Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT01444521 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Docetaxel, Capecitabine, Cisplatin, and Bevacizumab in Patients With Unresectable Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT01471470 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.