A Safety, Pharmacokinetic & Dose-Escalation Study of KD019 in Subjects With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneystudy entrymarrowtherapydialysis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpharmacokineticsparticipantsto evaluatesafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 62 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Tesevatinib in Subjects With ADPKD NCT03203642 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Pharmacokinetic, Single Ascending Dose Study of Tesevatinib in Pediatric Subjects With Autosomal Recessive Polycystic Kidney Disease (ARPKD) NCT03096080 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Tolerability and Efficacy of Tolvaptan in Children and Adolescents With ADPKD (Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease) NCT02964273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Tolvaptan Extension Study in Participants With ADPKD NCT01214421 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of GLPG2737 in Participants With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) NCT04578548 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.