A Safety, Pharmacokinetic, Single Ascending Dose Study of Tesevatinib in Pediatric Subjects With Autosomal Recessive Polycystic Kidney Disease (ARPKD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (233 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasulnsubject isperformancekidney
  Phrases that lowered it: singlesubjectsdosedrugsafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 36.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Tesevatinib in Subjects With ADPKD NCT03203642 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Pharmacokinetic & Dose-Escalation Study of KD019 in Subjects With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT01559363 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Study of Epetraborole Tablets in Subjects With Degrees of Renal Function NCT05283746 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Subjects With Distal Renal Tubular Acidosis NCT03644706 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Single Dose Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of Pevifoscorvir Sodium (ALG-000184) in Participants With Renal Impairment and in Healthy Participants With Normal Renal Function NCT07342881 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.