Cardiac Surgery Neuroprotection Study in Elders
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-10-31, after 2012-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cognitivedementiato determinedetermine thestudy is
Phrases that lowered it: patientsintranasalelderlydifficulty65 years -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 16 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9143 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1752 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- insulin aspart
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intranasal Insulin to Prevent Intensive Care Unit Delirium NCT07532577 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Oxytocin Nasal Spray on Preventing Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients Undergoing Orthopedic Surgery NCT06945926 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- The Impact of Ketamine on Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction, Delirium, and Renal Dysfunction NCT02554253 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Effects of Sevoflurane vs Desflurane on Early Recovery and Cognitive Function in Elderly Patients Undergoing Scheduled Non-Cardiac Surgery NCT07289945 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Modafinil to Prevent Postoperative Cognitive Decline NCT03914118 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.